2004 Australian federal election
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Legislative elections will be held in Australia on 9 October, 2004. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the 76-member Senate are up for election. The conservative coalition of the Liberal Party, led by John Howard, and the National Party of Australia led by Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson, are seeking a fourth three-year term. The government is opposed by the Australian Labor Party, led by Mark Latham. Labor needs to gain 13 seats to win the election.
The following minor parties are also known to be contesting the elections: the Australian Democrats, the Australian Greens, the Family First Party, the Australian Progressive Alliance, the Christian Democratic Party, the Citizens Electoral Council, the Democratic Labor Party, One Nation, the Progressive Labour Party and the Socialist Alliance.
Nominations for both houses closed on 16 September. A total of 1,080 candidates nominated for the House of Representatives, an average of 7.2 candidates per seat. A total of 332 candidates nominated for the Senate, an average of 8.3 candidates per vacancy. A list of all candidates contesting the House of Representatives or the Senate, as well as maps of all House of Representatives Divisions, can be seen at Adam Carr's Election Archive.
Announcement of election
The Prime Minister, John Howard, announced the election at a press conference in Canberra on 29 August, after meeting with the Governor-General, Major-General (ret) Michael Jeffery, at Government House.
John Howard told the press conference that the election would be about trust. "Who do you trust to keep the economy strong and protect family living standards?" he asked "Who do you trust to keep interest rates low? Who do you trust to lead the fight on Australia's behalf against international terrorism?"
Howard, who turned 65 in July, declined to answer questions about whether he would serve a full three-year term if his government was re-elected. "I will serve as long as my party wants me to," he said. (See full report and transcript of Howard's press conference).
At a press conference in Sydney half an hour after Howard's announcement, Opposition Leader Mark Latham welcomed the election, saying the Howard Government had been in power too long. He said the main issue would be truth in government. "We've had too much dishonesty from the Howard Government," he said. "The election is about trust. The Government has been dishonest for too long." (See full report and transcript of Latham's press conference).
Campaign
Opening stages
The campaign began with Labor leading in all published national opinion polls. On 31 August the Newspoll published in The Australian newspaper gave Labor a lead of 52 percent to 48 percent nationwide, which would translate into a comfortable win for Labor in terms of seats. Most commentators, however, expect the election to be very close, pointing out that Labor was also ahead in the polls at the comparable point of the 1998 election, which Howard won. Howard has also consistently outpolled Latham as preferred Prime Minister by an average of 11.7 percentage points in polls taken this year.
After the first week of campaigning, a Newspoll conducted for News Corporation newspapers indicated that the Coalition held a lead on a two-party preferred basis of 52 percent to 48 percent in the government's twelve most marginal held seats. To secure government in its own right, Labor must win twelve more seats than in the 2001 election. In the same poll, John Howard increased his lead over Mark Latham as preferred Prime Minister by four points. Meanwhile, the Taverner poll conducted for The Sun-Herald newspaper revealed that younger voters were more likely to support Labor, with 41% of those aged 18 to 24 supporting Labor, compared with 36% who support the Coalition.
The Jakarta embassy bombing
On September 9, during the second week of campaigning the election was rocked by a terrorist attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia. John Howard expressed his "utter dismay at this event" and dispatched Foreign Minister Alexander Downer to Jakarta to assist in the investigation. Mark Latham committed the Labor's "full support to all efforts by the Australian and Indonesian governments to ensure that happens". The parties reached an agreement that campaigning would cease for September 10 out of respect for the victims of this attack and that this would be in addition to the cessation of campaigning already agreed upon for September 11 out of respect for the victims of the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. Most commentators believe that this terrorist attack increases the Coalition's chances of victory because it refocuses the election on the issue of national security, which is generally considered to be a Coalition strength.
The debate
A debate between John Howard and Mark Latham was televised commercial-free on the Nine Network at 7:30 PM on Sunday September 12. In a change from previous election debates, which involved a single moderator, the leaders were questioned by a five member panel representing each of the major media groups in Australia. There was a representative from commerical television (Laurie Oakes), the ABC (Jim Middleton), News Limited (Malcolm Farr), John Fairfax Holdings (Michelle Grattan) and radio (Neil Mitchell). Howard and Latham were permitted to bring pens, paper and any other documentation but may not bring props. After an opening address, they responded to questions posed by the panel and had the opportunity to make a closing statement. The Nine Network permitted other television organisations to transmit the feed however only the ABC decided to and even then only at 10:00 PM.
The debate was followed (only on the Nine Network) by an analysis of the leaders' performance by the "worm". The worm works by analysing the approval or disapproval of a select group of undecided voters to each statement that a leader makes. Throughout the debate, Latham performed strongly within the approval range and Howard performed poorly within the disapproval range. A final poll of the focus group found that 67% of the focus group believed that Mark Latham won the debate and that 33% of the focus group believed that John Howard won the debate. Major media outlets generally agreed that Latham had won the debate, although they pointed out that with no further debates scheduled and nearly four weeks of the campaign remaining, Latham's gain in the momentum from the debate was unlikely to be decisive. Political commentators noted that the 2001 election debate, between John Howard and then opposition leader Kim Beazley, gave similar worm results yet Labor still lost that election.
After three weeks
By the midpoint of the campaign, after Labor had released its policies on taxation and education, polls showed that the election was still too close to call. The Newspoll in The Australian, generally regarded as the most accurate of the national polls, showed (September 21) Labor leading with 52.5 percent of the two-party vote. The ACNielsen poll published in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age showed the Coalition ahead on 52 percent. The Morgan poll, which has a poor recent record of predicting federal elections, showed Labor ahead with 53 percent on the weekend of 18-19 September. A Galaxy Poll in the Melbourne Herald Sun showed the Coalition ahead with 51 percent, but showed Labor gaining ground.
Despite Latham's strong performance in the debate, most political commentators argued that he had not gained a clear advantage over Howard. They pointed to anomalies in Labor's tax policy and the controversy surrounding Labor's policy of reducing government funding to some non-government schools as issues which Howard was successfully exploiting.
Preference deals
As in all Australian elections, the second-preference votes of minor parties will be crucial in determing the outcome of this election, and the close of nominations was followed by a period of bargaining among the parties. Howard made a pitch for the preferences of the Australian Greens by appearing to offer concessions on the issue of logging in old-growth forests in Tasmania, and the Coalition will direct its preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor in the Senate, but the Greens nevertheless decided to allocate preferences to Labor in most electorates. In exchange, Labor agreed to direct its preferences in the Senate to the Greens, increasing the chance that the Greens will displace Australian Democrats Senators in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
The Democrats in turn did a preference deal with the Family First Party, despite the great ideological differences between the two parties. The Coalition can expect to gain preferences from the Family First Party, the Christian Democratic Party, the Democratic Labor Party and One Nation.
In Victoria, however, Family First, the Christian Democrats and the DLP have allocated their senate preferences to Labor, in order to help ensure the re-eelection of the number three Labor Senate candidate, Jacinta Collins, a Catholic who has conservative views on some social issues such as abortion. In Tasmania, Family First and the Democrats are also directing their Senate preferences to Labor, apparently to preclude the possibility of the Liberals winning a majority in the Senate and thus reducing the influence of the minor parties.
Campaign launches
John Howard and John Anderson launched the Coalition election campaign at a joint function in Brisbane on 26 September. Howard's policy speech (PDF) can be read at the Liberal Party website. Anderson's policy speech can be read at the National Party website.
Mark Latham's policy speech was delivered, also in Brisbane, on 29 September. His policy speech can be read at the Australian Labor Party website.
After four weeks
During the fourth week of the campaign contradictory polls continued to appear. The ACNielsen poll published in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on 25 September showed the Coalition ahead with 54 percent, which would translate into a large majority for the government. The Newspoll in The Australian on 28 September showed Labor ahead with 52 percent, which would give Labor a comfortable majority.
Timetable
Under Australia's Westminster system, the date of the election is a matter for the discretion of the Prime Minister, within certain legislative and constitutional constraints. To call an election, the Prime Minister advises the Governor-General to dissolve the current Parliament by proclamation and issue writs for the election of a new Parliament. There must be at least four weeks between the issuing of the writs and the date of the election. The 2004 election campaign will extend over nearly six weeks, the longest since 1984.
When a federal election is called, writs for the election of Senators are issued by the Governors of the Australian states, on the request of the Governor-General. This is because under the Constitution of Australia the Senate represents the states, although it is in fact elected on party lines.
The key dates for the election are:
- Issue of writ: Tuesday, 31 August 2004
- Close of rolls: 8pm, Tuesday 7 September 2004
- Close of nominations: 12 noon, Thursday 16 September 2004
- Declaration of nominations: 12 noon, Friday 17 September 2004
- Start of mobile polling booths in remote areas, 27 September 2004.
- Election day: Saturday, 9 October 2004
It is compulsory for all registered Australian voters to attend a polling place and have their name marked off, or otherwise receive a ballot, and it must be returned (ballot papers may not be removed from the polling place). Those who do not wish to vote for the candidates on offer may cast an "informal" vote. Compulsary attendence is one reason why Australian elections are always held on a Saturday. Voters (such as observant Jews) who cannot vote on the appointed day may vote in the week before the election: one polling place in each constituency is open for this purpose (this is called "pre-polling"). Voters may also apply for a postal ballot, in which case ballot papers are posted to their home, or to any address they nominate. Most elderly and infirm voters cast postal votes.
Voters who will be outside their electorate on election day can vote at any polling place in Australia (this is called "absent voting"). Voters who are physically unable to vote (through visual impairment, for example) may ask an electoral officer to fill in their ballot for them at a polling place. Voters who are overseas on election day can vote at any Australian diplomatic mission, or can apply for a postal vote and have their ballot papers posted to them anywhere in the world. Voters who advise their political party that they will be casting a postal vote can have a how-to-vote card for their party's candidates posted to them.
See Australian electoral system for more on the technical arrangements of Australian elections.
The House of Representatives
After the 2001 election the party strengths in the House of Representatives were as follows:
Party Seats ------------------------------------------------------------ Liberal Party 69 National Party of Australia 13 Australian Labor Party 65 Independents 3 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total 150 ------------------------------------------------------------
In October 2002 the Australian Greens won a by-election in a seat previously held by the Labor Party following the resignation of the sitting member.
During 2003 new constituency boundaries were drawn up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. This had the effect of changing one Labor held seat in Victoria into a notionally Liberal seat.
The parties went therefore into the 2004 election with the following notional strengths:
Party Seats ------------------------------------------------------------ Liberal Party 70 National Party of Australia 13 Australian Labor Party 63 Australian Greens 1 Independents 3 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total 150 ------------------------------------------------------------
To gain a majority in the House of Representatives, the Labor Party must therefore make a net gain of 13 seats. If Labor were to gain 12 seats, and the Green member is re-elected, it is probable that the Green member would support a minority Labor government. If Labor were to gain 11 seats, it is possible, though far from certain, that one of the three independent members would support a Labor government. The other two independent members were conservatives.
Each seat is elected using the instant-runoff voting style of preferential voting, whereby each voter numbers/ranks all the candidates in order of their preference.
The Senate
Because the Senate is elected by proportional representation, it is very difficult for either of the major parties to gain a majority. The last Prime Minister to have a majority in the Senate was Malcolm Fraser in the period 1975-1981. Since then the balance of power in the Senate has been held by minor parties and independent Senators.
The current state of the parties in the Senate is as follows:
Party Senators Expiring Expiring
2005 2008
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Liberal Party 31 15 16
National Party of Australia 4 2 2
Australian Labor Party 28 16 12
Australian Democrats 7 3 4
Australian Greens 2 . 2
Australian Progressive Alliance 1 1 .
Pauline Hanson's One Nation 1 1 .
Independents 2 2 .
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 76 40 36
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The Liberal and National parties thus need a gain of four seats to win a majority in the Senate, while the Labor Party needs a gain of 11 seats: neither is considered likely.
The Coalition's best chances of gaining Senate seats are in Queensland (at the expense of Pauline Hanson's One Nation) and Tasmania (following the retirement of conservative independent Brian Harradine. To win exactly half the seats in the Senate, the Liberals would need also to win seats from Labor in New South Wales and Victoria. The chances of Coalition Senate gains in Victoria and Tasmania have been reduced by the preference deals described above. Labor's best chances of gaining Senate seats are in Tasmania and South Australia.
There is likely to be change in the distribution of seats among the minor parties. The Australian Democrats have suffered from internal conflict and leadership changes since 2001 and are considered in grave danger of losing the four seats that are up for re-election, probably to the Australian Greens. Pauline Hanson's One Nation has disintegrated since the withdrawal of Pauline Hanson from the party. One Nation's sole Senate seat is considered likely to revert to the National Party, or possibly the Liberal Party.
- N.B. The Liberals and Nationals run joint Senate tickets in Victoria and New South Wales, elsewhere they preference each other before any other candidates.
Issues
John Howard won the 2001 elections after trailing Labor in the opinion polls for two years, by seizing on the issues of national security, following the September 11 terrorist attacks, and border protection against illegal immigrants (see MS Tampa). It is unlikely that these issues will dominate the 2004 election to nearly the same extent. Howard's campaign, nevertheless, will seek to portray him as a tough and experienced leader who can be trusted with Australia's security, and who has good relations with Australia's principal allies, the United States and Britain.
On domestic issues, polls have consistently shown that the Liberals are regarded as sound managers of the economy, but that voters are opposed to the government's policies in the fields of health, education, the environment and other areas of social policy. Labor has accused the government of seeking to dismantle Australia's system of universal health insurance, Medicare, of restructuring Australia's higher education system to the benefit of students from wealthier families, and of endangering the environment by refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
The election will therefore hinge on whether voters choose to give priority to issues of national security and border protection, or to issues of social policy. Labor's new leader, Mark Latham, has sought to improve Labor's image on national security issues by stressing Labor's support for the U.S. Alliance (counterbalancing his prior outspokenness against American President Bush), and to develop new policies on border protection. Likewise, Howard spent much of 2003 introducing new health and education initiatives in an effort to improve the government's standing in these areas. Unconventional issues such as the "crisis of masculinity" and politicians' superannuation, raised by Mark Latham, may also play a part in the election. The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement also looms large as an issue.
In some electorates, smaller issues can make larger impacts, particularly for independent candidates and minor parties. For example, since both major parties oppose the legal recognition of same-sex marriage, this issue is gaining traction for the Greens in electorates with large gay and lesbian populations, such as Sydney, Grayndler and Melbourne.
Party leaders
- John Howard has been an MP since 1974, leader of the Liberal Party since 1995 (he was previously leader from 1985 to 1989), and Prime Minister since March 1996. He turned 65 in July 2004, a fact which may become an election issue, especially since Mark Latham is more than 20 years younger. Howard is by far the most experienced politician in Australian federal politics. He is considered a master of political strategy.
- John Anderson has been an MP since 1988 and leader of the National Party and Deputy Prime Minister since 1999. Although talented and personable, he has been unable to stem the long-term decline in the Nationals' rural electoral base. During 2003 he considered retiring from Parliament at this election, but was persuaded not to.
- Mark Latham has been an MP since 1994 and was elected leader of the Australian Labor Party in December 2003. He was elected following the resignation of Simon Crean, who after continued poor polling was given no chance, even by his own party, of defeating Howard. Since his election Latham has campaigned aggressively and initially made a good impression, but a series of controversies during 2004 caused much criticism of his alleged inconsistency and volatility. The campaign will show whether he can mount a serious challenge to Howard.
- Andrew Bartlett has been a Senator since 1997 and leader of the Australian Democrats since 2002. His efforts to revive the Democrats' fortunes after a year of damaging internal conflict were severely set back by an incident in December 2003 in which he accosted Liberal Senator Jeannie Ferris in the Senate chamber while visibly drunk. He has kept a low profile during 2004.
- Bob Brown has been a Senator and the informal leader of the Australian Greens since 1996. By resolutely opposing Australia's participation in the Iraq War he has established himself as the most prominent figure of the Australian left and has a high reputation for integrity.
Related article
Australian House of Representatives electoral Divisions
Pendulum
Malcolm Mackerras's pendulum for the election was published in The Australian newspaper on Monday, 5 January 2004 together with two tables and an article by him titled “Nothing for certain in landslide danger zone”.
External links
Electoral sites
- The ABC's 2004 Federal Election Site
- ABC News Election Summary, by elections analyst Antony Green
- "The Mackerras Pendulum" Malcolm Mackerras
- Adam Carr's Election Archive
- Australian Election Commission website
- All the candidates and Senate preferences
Party sites
- Australian Labor Party website
- Liberal Party website
- The Nationals website
- Australian Democrats website
- Family First Party website
- Australian Greens website
- Socialist Alliance website
- Citizens Electoral Council website
Election commentary and voter assistance
- Election Tracker - Aimed at youth; writers are young journalists and enthusiastic amateurs.
- ComparePolicies - Brings together all published policies by all candidates, without comment.