A Short History of Progress
A Short History of Progress, written by Ronald Wright, describes how four historical civilizations, (Easter Island, Sumer, Maya and Rome self-destructed due to a lack of foresight and wrong choices. His premise is that each time history repeats itself, the price goes up.
In his analysis of the four cases, he notes that two (Easter Island and Sumer) failed due to depletion of natural resources—"their ecologies were unable to regenerate." The other two failed in their heartlands, "where ecological demand was highest," but left remnant populations that survived. He asks the question: "Why, if civilizations so often destroy themselves, has the overall experiment of civilization done so well." For the answer, he says, we must look to natural regeneration and human migration (Wright, 102).
While some ancient civilizations were depleting their ecologies and failing, others were rising. Large expanses of the planet were unsettled. The other factor, evident in both Egypt and China, was that due to abundant resources (e.g., topsoil), farming methods (ones that worked with, rather than against, natural cycles), and settlement patterns, these civilizations had greater longevity (103-104).
Changes brought on by the exponential growth of human population—now over 6 billion and adding over 200 million people every three years—and the worldwide scale of resource consumption, have altered the picture, however. Ecological markers indicate that human civilization has now surpassed (since the 1980s) nature's capacity for regeneration. We are now using more than 125% of nature's yearly output. "If civilization is to survive, it must live on the interest, not the capital of nature" (129). He concludes that "now is our chance to get the future right"—the collapse of human civilization is immanent if we do not act now to prevent it (132).
Reference
- Wright, R. 2004. A Short History of Progress. Toronto: Anansi ISBN 0-88784-706-4