July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election: Difference between revisions

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| election_name = July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
| election_name = July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
| country = Bulgaria
| country = Bulgaria
| ongoing = no
| ongoing = yes
| previous_election = [[April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election|April 2021]]
| previous_election = [[April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election|April 2021]]
| next_election =2025
| next_election =2025

Revision as of 12:09, 13 July 2021

July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Bulgaria
← April 2021 11 July 2021 2025 →
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Reporting
98.92%
as of 11:45, 13 July 2021 (UTC)
Party Leader Current seats
ITN Slavi Trifonov
scope="row" style="border-left: 4px solid Template:GERB/meta/color;" | GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov
BSPzB Korneliya Ninova
DB Atanas Atanasov
Hristo Ivanov
DPS Mustafa Karadayi
IBG-NI Maya Manolova
Incumbent Prime Minister
Stefan Yanev Stefan Yanev
Independent

Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 11 July 2021 after no party was able or willing to form a government following the April 2021 elections.[1]

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) assessed the election as being "competitive and fundamental freedoms being generally respected, however media shortcomings and lack of issue-driven campaign failing to engage voters."[2]

Background

The previous election in April saw the ruling GERB party win 75 seats, There Is Such A People (ITN) 51 seats, BSP for Bulgaria 43 seats, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 30 seats, Democratic Bulgaria 27 seats and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! 14 seats. After Boyko Borisov of GERB and Slavi Trifonov of There Is Such A People (ITN) were unable to form governments, the BSP stated that they would refuse the mandate to form the government, as the three anti-corruption parties (ITN, Democratic Bulgaria and ISMV) were unwilling to work with them.[1]

Electoral system

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for parties, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method.[3]

Parties and coalitions

In May 2021, IMRO – Bulgarian National Movement formed a alliance with fellow neo-nationalists Volya Movement and National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria in an alliance called Bulgarian Patriots.[4]

Party Main ideology Leader Current seats
style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color"| GERB–SDS Conservatism Boyko Borisov
75
style="background:Template:There Are Such People/meta/color"| ITN Populism Slavi Trifonov
51
style="background:Template:BSP for Bulgaria/meta/color"| BSPzB Social democracy Korneliya Ninova
43
style="background:Template:Movement for Rights and Freedoms/meta/color"| DPS Liberalism Mustafa Karadayi
30
style="background:Template:Democratic Bulgaria/meta/color"| DB Liberal conservatism Hristo Ivanov
27
style="background:Template:Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!/meta/color"| ISMV Anti-corruption Maya Manolova
14
style="background:Template:Bulgarian Patriots/meta/color"| Bulgarian Patriots National conservatism Yulian Angelov
No seats
style="background:Template:Revival (Bulgarian political party)/meta/color"| Revival Bulgarian nationalism Kostadin Kostadinov
style="background:Template:Bulgarian Summer/meta/color"| Bulgarian Summer Direct democracy Boril Sokolov
style="background:Template:Republicans for Bulgaria/meta/color"| RzB Conservatism Tsvetan Tsvetanov
style="background:Template:Left Union for a Clean and Holy Republic/meta/color"| Left Union Socialism Nikolay Malinov

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and excludes pollees that chose 'I will not vote' or 'I am uncertain'.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		GERB–SDS ITN BSPzB DPS DB ISMV BP Revival BL RzB Left Union Others / None Lead
VMRO Volya NFSB
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:There Are Such People/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:BSP for Bulgaria/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Movement for Rights and Freedoms/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Democratic Bulgaria/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!/meta/color;;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:IMRO – Bulgarian National Movement/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Volya Movement/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Revival (Bulgarian political party)/meta/color"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Bulgarian Summer/meta/color"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Republicans for Bulgaria/meta/color"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Left Union for a Clean and Holy Republic/meta/color"|
Alpha Research / BNT Exit polls (20:00) — 23.5% 22.3% 14.1% 11.7% 14.1% 5.5% 3.2% 2.3% 1.3% – 0.3% 1.7% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 1.2%
Gallup / BNT Exit polls (20:00) — 22.1% 21.5% 15.1% 11.8% 13.7% 4.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.2% – 0.3% 1.8% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.6%
Alpha Research 4–7 July 2021 1013 21.5% 21.8% 16.4% 11.1% 12% 5.4% 3.8% 3.2% 1.2% - 0.5% 3.1% style="background:Template:There Are Such People/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.3%
Trend 3-7 July 2021 1002 20.5% 21.3% 15.9% 11.3% 12.4% 5.1% 3.9% 3.1% 1.6% - 0.8% 4.1% style="background:Template:There Are Such People/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.8%
Gallup 30 Jun–7 Jul 2021 1010 20.3% 21.3% 15.9% 11.5% 12.2% 6.1% 4% 3.1% 2.5% - 1% 2.1% style="background:Template:There Are Such People/meta/color; color:white;"| 1%
Sova Harris 2–6 July 2021 1000 22.6% 22.1% 16% 10.9% 10.6% 5.3% 4.5% - - - - 8% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.5%
Exacta 1–5 July 2021 1005 21.4% 20.8% 15.8% 11.2% 12.8% 4.8% 4% 2.8% 1.8% - - 4.6% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.6%
Mediana 26 June–2 July 2021 920 22.5% 21.7% 20.6% 11.1% 10% 5.1% 4.8% 2.2% - - - 2% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.8%
Nasoca 23–30 Jun 2021 1025 21.4% 20.5% 15.8% 10.5% 11.3% 5.3% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% - - 6.4% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.9%
Specter 24–27 Jun 2021 703 21.4% 19.7% 14.5% 10.5% 12.2% 5.0% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 6.4% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 1.7%
Market links 18–25 Jun 2021 626 21.8% 20.8% 18.7% 10.5% 13.8% 6% 3.2% 2.7% 1.4% - - 1.1% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 1%
Barometer 18–23 June 2021 860 22.5% 18.2% 17.1% 11.6% 9.1% 4.3% 6.4% 1.4% – 1.2% 1.9% 6.2% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 4.3%
Trend 11–18 Jun 2021 1,003 21.7% 20.2% 16.1% 10.9% 11.2% 5.0% 3.9% 2.3% 1.9% – 1.1% 5.7% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 1.5%
Sova Harris 10–15 Jun 2021 1,000 22.4% 21.7% 18.7% 11.4% 11.1% 5.4% 4.9% – – – – 4.4% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.7%
Mediana 10–15 Jun 2021 1,008 21.4% 24.0% 21.3% 11.2% 7.2% 6.9% 5.1% 1.5% – – – 1.4% style="background:Template:There Are Such People/meta/color; color:white;"| 2.6%
Gallup 3–11 Jun 2021 1,012 21.0% 21.2% 15.9% 11.9% 12.1% 5.8% 3.5% 2.7% 2.4% – – 3.5% style="background:Template:There Are Such People/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.2%
Specter 5–10 Jun 2021 731 21.0% 19.4% 14.1% 10.3% 11.5% 4.8% 4.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 8.0% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 1.6%
Alpha Research 30 May–7 Jun 2021 1,007 20.3% 18.2% 14.4% 9.9% 11.9% 5.3% 3.4% 2.8% 1.1% – 1.8% 10.9% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 2.1%
Barometer 1–6 Jun 2021 840 24.1% 17.1% 16.9% 11.3% 8.9% 4.1% 6.1% 1.5% – 1.3% 1.1% 7.6% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 7.0%
Market Links 19–27 May 2021 676 23.7% 19.8% 19.3% 10.6% 13.3% 4.8% 4.6% 2% – – – 2% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;" | 3.9%
CAM[a] 14–21 May 2021 – 23.8% 20.9% 18.0% 10.5% 11.4% 4.4% 3.7% 1.9% – – – 5.5% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 2.9%
Gallup[a] 7–14 May 2021 812 22.8% 20.1% 16.1% 11.2% 11.6% 5.6% 3.1% 1.4% – 2.6% 2.8% – – 6.9% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 2.7%
Market Links[b][c] 16–23 Apr 2021 1,053 23.2% 22.3% 18.1% 10.3% 13.1% 6.5% 3.3% – – 1.9% – – – 1.4% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 0.9%
Gallup 12–14 Apr 2021 831 27.2% 23.2% 13.8% 10.4% 12.0% 4.3% – – – – – – style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 4.0%
April 2021 election 4 Apr 2021 – 25.8% 17.4% 14.8% 10.4% 9.3% 4.6% 3.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 4.7% style="background:Template:GERB/meta/color; color:white;"| 8.4%


Graphical representation of recalculated data:

Results

There Is Such a People narrowly won the election over GERB–SDS, defeating them by 0.2%.[5] Four other parties – BSP for Bulgaria, Democratic Bulgaria, Movement for Rights and Freedom and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! – earned seats as well.[5] There Is Such a People performed well among young voters, with 34.7% of Generation Z supporting the party and 30.9% of voters aged 30 to 39.[6] GERB–SDS received high support from voters aged 40 to 49, and BSP for Bulgaria received high support from voters older than 70.[6]

International observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said freedoms were respected in the election.[5] After the election, Trifonov said he did not plan to form a coalition government and would instead seek to run a minority government.[5] The parliament is expected to convene for the first time about a week after the election.[5]

PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
There Is Such A People645,12923.60+6.264+13
GERB–SDS639,22123.39–2.463−12
BSP for Bulgaria364,54513.34–1.536−7
Democratic Bulgaria338,96312.40+3.134+7
Movement for Rights and Freedoms287,71210.53+0.229−1
Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!135,6304.96+0.3140
Bulgarian Patriots85,3943.12–2.80New
Revival80,0362.93+0.500
Bulgarian Summer48,9481.79–1.10New
Attack12,5970.46+0.000
Left Union for a Clean and Holy Republic10,1920.37New0New
Republicans for Bulgaria8,5020.31–1.000
National Association of the Right7,8220.29New0New
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy4,6470.17+0.100
People's Voice4,6740.17–0.10New
Freedom4,2490.16New0New
Bulgaria of Work and Reason3,8900.14New0New
Together Movement for Change3,3930.12+0.000
MIR3,4060.12New0New
Direct Democracy3,1120.11+0.000
Green Party of Bulgaria3,2080.12–0.100
Brigade2,1780.08New0New
Rise8550.03New0New
Independents1420.01+0.000
None of the above34,9081.28–0.2––
Total2,733,353100.00–2400
Total votes3,333,997–
Registered voters/turnout6,578,71650.68+1.6
Source: CIK (98.92% completed)

By constituency

Constituency
Blagoevgrad
Burgas
Varna
Veliko Tarnovo
Vidin
Vratsa
Gabrovo
Dobrich
Kardzhali
Kyustendil
Lovech
Montana
Pazardzhik
Pernik
Pleven
Plovdiv-city
Plovdiv-province
Razgrad
Ruse
Silistra
Sliven
Smolyan
Sofia-city 23
Sofia-city 24
Sofia-city 25
Sofia-province
Stara Zagora
Targovishte
Haskovo
Shumen
Yambol
Bulgarian nationals abroad
Source: CIK

Notes:

  1. ^ a b Includes voter-only data.
  2. ^ Includes voters and non-voters.
  3. ^ The sum of all percentages is above or below 100.

Aftermath

International reactions

  • Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe: OSCE issued a statement that "Bulgaria’s early parliamentary elections were competitive and fundamental freedoms were generally respected, international observers said in a statement today. The campaign environment was dominated by mutual accusations of corruption between the former ruling party and the provisional government, as well as by efforts by law-enforcement to curb vote-buying".[7]

References

  1. ^ a b Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government Reuters, 1 May 2021
  2. ^ https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/492616. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  3. ^ Electoral system for national legislature – Bulgaria IDEA
  4. ^ "Ultra-nationalists, populists form 'Bulgarian Patriots' alliance for July elections". The Sofia Globe. 20 May 2021. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 11 July 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d e Toshkov, Veselin (12 July 2021). "Anti-elite party earns tight win in Bulgarian elections". Associated Press. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  6. ^ a b "37.4% of Generation Z supports There is Such a People party: survey". Radio Bulgaria. 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  7. ^ "Fundamental freedoms generally respected in Bulgarian elections, but media shortcomings, lack of issue-driven campaign fail to engage voters, observers say". www.osce.org. Retrieved 2021-07-13.
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